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2016 United States Senate election in Missouri

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2016 United States Senate election in Missouri
← 2010 November 8, 2016 2022 →
 
Nominee Roy Blunt Jason Kander
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 1,378,458 1,300,200
Percentage 49.18% 46.39%
Blunt:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Kander:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      40–50%      50%      No votes
U.S. senator before election

Roy Blunt
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Roy Blunt
Republican

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The 2016 United States Senate election in Missouri was held on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Missouri. It was held concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. The primaries were held on August 2.

Incumbent Republican Senator Roy Blunt won re-election to a second term in office, defeating Democratic Missouri Secretary of State Jason Kander.[1][2] Despite losing, Kander's margin of defeat was 15.7 percentage points closer than that of Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton in the concurrent presidential election in the state. This is also the closest a Democrat has come to winning this seat since 1980.

Republican primary

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Despite being considered an "establishment" Republican, Blunt did not face serious Tea Party opposition due to his efforts to cultivate relationships with activists in Missouri, his effectiveness at "threading the needle" by keeping conservative and establishment Republicans fairly satisfied, and the open gubernatorial election, which attracted the most attention from Republicans.[3]

Candidates

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Declared

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  • Roy Blunt, incumbent senator since 2011[1][4]
  • Ryan Luethy, financial services worker[5]
  • Bernie Mowinski, retired army sergeant and perennial candidate[6]
  • Kristi Nichols, sales manager, Tea Party activist and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010[6]

Withdrew

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Declined

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Endorsements

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Roy Blunt

Presidents

U.S. Senators

U.S. Representatives

Individuals

Organizations

Polling

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Roy
Blunt 		Kristi
Nichols 		Bernie
Mowinski 		Ryan
Luethy 		Undecided
St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon[21] July 23–27, 2016 400 ± 5.0% 66% 9% 5% 1% 19%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Roy
Blunt 		John
Brunner 		Other Undecided
Remington Research Group[22] January 2015 1,355 ± ? 60% 40% — —
Remington Research Group[23] February 2–3, 2015 747 3.6% 50% 19% — 32%

Results

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Results by county:
  Blunt
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
Republican primary results[24]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Roy Blunt (incumbent) 481,444 72.55%
Republican Kristi Nichols 134,025 20.20%
Republican Ryan Luethy 29,328 4.42%
Republican Bernie Mowinski 18,789 2.83%
Total votes 663,586 100.00%

Democratic primary

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Candidates

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Declared

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Declined

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Endorsements

[edit]
Jason Kander

Vice presidents

Governors

U.S. Senators

U.S. Representatives

Statewide Officials

Organizations

Polling

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Jason
Kander 		Cori
Bush 		Robert
Mack 		Chief
Wana Dubie 		Undecided
St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon[21] July 23–27, 2016 400 ± 5.0% 67% 7% 4% 2% 20%

Results

[edit]
Results by county:
  Kander
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
Democratic primary results[24]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Jason Kander 223,492 69.87%
Democratic Cori Bush 42,453 13.27%
Democratic Chief Wana Dubie 30,432 9.51%
Democratic Robert Mack 23,509 7.35%
Total votes 319,886 100.00%

Third party and independent candidates

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Libertarian primary

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Candidates

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Declared
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Results

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Libertarian primary results[24]
Party Candidate Votes %
Libertarian Jonathan Dine 2,002 54.90%
Libertarian Herschel Young 1,642 45.06%
Total votes 3,644 100.00%

Constitution primary

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Candidates

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Declared
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Results

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Constitution primary results[24]
Party Candidate Votes %
Constitution Fred Ryman 545 100.00%
Total votes 545 100.00%

Green Party

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Candidates

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Declared
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Write-in

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General election

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Debates

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Date Host Moderator Link(s) Participants
Key:
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee  W  Withdrawn
Roy
Blunt 		Jonathan
Dine 		Jason
Kander 		Jonathan
McFarland 		Fred
Ryman
September 30, 2016 Associated Press David Lieb [57] P P P P P

Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[58] Tossup November 2, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[59] Lean R November 7, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report[60] Tossup November 3, 2016
Daily Kos[61] Lean R November 8, 2016
Real Clear Politics[62] Tossup November 7, 2016

Polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Roy
Blunt (R) 		Jason
Kander (D) 		Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey[63] November 1–7, 2016 1,368 ± 4.6% 44% 51% — 5%
SurveyMonkey[64] October 31 – November 6, 2016 1,119 ± 4.6% 43% 51% — 6%
Emerson College[65] November 4–5, 2016 750 ± 3.5% 45% 46% 5% 4%
SurveyMonkey[66] October 28 – November 3, 2016 879 ± 4.6% 45% 51% — 4%
Clarity Campaign Labs[67] November 1–2, 2016 1,036 ± 3.1% 47% 45% — 8%
SurveyMonkey[68] October 27 – November 2, 2016 774 ± 4.6% 45% 51% — 4%
Public Policy Polling[69] October 31 – November 1, 2016 1,083 ± 3.0% 46% 44% — 9%
Missouri Times/Remington Research Group (R)[70] October 31 – November 1, 2016 1,722 ± 2.4% 48% 44% 3%[71] 5%
DFM Research[72] October 27 – November 1, 2016 508 ± 4.4% 41% 41% 9% 9%
SurveyMonkey[73] October 26 – November 1, 2016 649 ± 4.6% 46% 50% — 4%
Emerson College[74] October 28–31, 2016 650 ± 3.8% 45% 45% 6% 4%
Monmouth University[75] October 28–31, 2016 405 ± 4.9% 47% 46% 3% 5%
SurveyMonkey[76] October 25–31, 2016 671 ± 4.6% 45% 51% — 4%
Missouri Scout/BK Strategies (R)[77] October 27–28, 2016 1,698 ± 2.4% 47% 44% 4%[78] 5%
St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon[79] October 24–26, 2016 625 ± 4.0% 47% 46% 2% 5%
Emerson College[80] October 17–19, 2016 600 ± 3.9% 44% 44% 4% 8%
Google Consumer Surveys[81] October 12–14, 2016 521 ± 4.2% 45% 52% — 3%
Monmouth University[82] October 9–11, 2016 406 ± 4.9% 46% 44% 3%[83] 7%
Emerson College[84] September 9–13, 2016 600 ± 3.6% 40% 42% 10% 8%
Missouri Scout/Remington Research Group (R)[85] September 1–2, 2016 1,275 ± 3.0% 47% 40% — 13%
Public Policy Polling[86] August 26–27, 2016 1,055 ± 3.0% 47% 43% — 10%
Monmouth University[87] August 19–22, 2016 401 ± 4.9% 48% 43% 3%[83] 7%
Remington Research Group (R)[88] August 5–6, 2016 1,280 ± 3.0% 47% 40% 6%[89] 7%
St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon[90] July 23–24, 2016 625 ± 4.0% 47% 43% — 10%
Public Policy Polling[91] July 11–12, 2016 959 ± 3.2% 41% 38% — 21%
Missouri Scout/Remington Research Group (R)[92] March 25–26, 2016 927 ± 3.2% 44% 37% — 19%
DFM Research[93] March 17–24, 2016 674 ± 3.8% 49% 35% 2% 14%
Missouri Scout/Remington Research Group (R)[94] October 30–31, 2015 783 ± 3.5% 43% 33% — 23%
Public Policy Polling[95] August 7–9, 2015 859 ± 3.3% 40% 35% — 25%
Remington Research Group (R)[96] February 19, 2015 957 ± 3.2% 49% 36% — 14%

Results

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2016 United States Senate election in Missouri[97]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Roy Blunt (incumbent) 1,378,458 49.18% −5.05%
Democratic Jason Kander 1,300,200 46.39% +5.76%
Libertarian Jonathan Dine 67,738 2.42% −0.60%
Green Johnathan McFarland 30,743 1.10% N/A
Constitution Fred Ryman 25,407 0.91% −1.22%
Write-in 95 0.03% N/A
Total votes 2,802,641 100.00% N/A
Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

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By congressional district

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Blunt won 6 of 8 congressional districts.[98]

District Blunt Kander Representative
1st 17% 79% Lacy Clay
2nd 48.3% 48.2% Ann Wagner
3rd 55% 40% Blaine Luetkemeyer
4th 56% 39% Vicky Hartzler
5th 34% 61% Emanuel Cleaver
6th 54% 41% Sam Graves
7th 64% 32% Billy Long
8th 63% 33% Jason Smith

See also

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Notes

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  1. ^ a b Most of the city lies within Jackson County, with portions spilling into Clay, Cass, and Platte counties.

References

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  1. ^ a b "Ahead of the 2016 curve: Roy Blunt has a fundraiser on election night 2014". The Washington Examiner. November 4, 2014. Retrieved November 13, 2014.
  2. ^ "Missouri U.S. Senate Results: Roy Blunt Wins". The New York Times. August 1, 2017. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved February 12, 2018.
  3. ^ Deirdre Shesgreen (February 17, 2015). "Blunt had a clear primary path, despite some tea party gripes". Springfield News-Leader. Retrieved February 18, 2015.
  4. ^ Levinson, Alexis (January 28, 2015). "Senators Confirm Re-Election Bids for 2016". Roll Call. Archived from the original on January 29, 2015. Retrieved February 17, 2015.
  5. ^ "Blunt, Kander easily win their Senate nominations | Politics | stltoday.com". St. Louis Post-Dispatch. August 3, 2016. Retrieved August 12, 2021.
  6. ^ a b c d e Horvath, Dave (February 23, 2016). "Three file for sheriff's race". The Neosho Daily News. Archived from the original on February 28, 2016. Retrieved February 29, 2016.
  7. ^ Hoak, Ashley (October 23, 2015). "Missouri Secretary of State shares plans for 2016 U.S. Senate run". KTVO.com. Retrieved January 10, 2016.
  8. ^ Hacker, John (February 29, 2016). "Flanigan joins field for Commissioner". The Carthage Press. Archived from the original on March 7, 2016. Retrieved February 29, 2016.
  9. ^ Jim Stinson (July 15, 2014). "Akin won't rule out 2016 run against Blunt". Springfield News-Leader. Retrieved November 13, 2014.
  10. ^ Kendall Breitman (February 26, 2015). "Akin: I'm not running for Senate". Politico. Retrieved February 26, 2015.
  11. ^ Shesgreen, Deirdre (February 17, 2015). "Blunt has clear primary path, despite some tea party gripes". Springfield News-Leader. Retrieved February 17, 2015.
  12. ^ "July 2016 Tip Sheet". The Missouri Times. July 15, 2015. Retrieved August 12, 2015.
  13. ^ "Invitation to Fund-Raiser for Roy Blunt headlined by George W. Bush". The New York Times. June 16, 2016. Retrieved September 21, 2016.
  14. ^ a b Jeffers, Gromer (October 4, 2016). "Ted Cruz, John Cornyn hosting Dallas fundraiser for U.S. Senate candidates". Dallas News. Retrieved October 7, 2016.
  15. ^ "Ryan stumps hard for GOP Senate". Politico. October 3, 2016.
  16. ^ "John Bolton endorses Roy Blunt & Chuck Grassley for U.S. Senate". boltonpac.com. May 24, 2016. Archived from the original on October 28, 2016. Retrieved September 21, 2016.
  17. ^ Fiorina, Carly (October 27, 2016). ".@RoyBlunt is the conservative leader Missouri needs. Here's why I'm endorsing him: facebook.com/CarlyFiorina/p..." Twitter. Retrieved October 28, 2016.
  18. ^ "Small Business endorses Roy Blunt for Re-election". National Federation of Independent Business. August 22, 2016. Archived from the original on August 23, 2016. Retrieved September 21, 2016.
  19. ^ Raasch, Chuck (August 9, 2016). "Blunt gets NRA Endorsement". St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Archived from the original on August 12, 2016. Retrieved September 21, 2016.
  20. ^ "Roy Blunt scores U.S. Chamber endorsement in Senate Race". KCUR. May 2, 2016. Archived from the original on May 3, 2016. Retrieved September 21, 2016.
  21. ^ a b St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon
  22. ^ Remington Research Group
  23. ^ Remington Research Group
  24. ^ a b c d "Missouri Senate Primary Results". Missouri Secretary of State. August 2, 2016. Archived from the original on November 23, 2016. Retrieved November 30, 2016.
  25. ^ Rivas, Rebecca (February 11, 2016). "Black Challengers of Democrat incumbents fight with party over access". Retrieved February 16, 2016.
  26. ^ "Cori Bush for U.S. Senate". Archived from the original on February 13, 2016. Retrieved February 16, 2016.
  27. ^ Kraske, Steve (January 30, 2015). "Secretary of State Kander pondering U.S. Senate run in Missouri". The Kansas City Star. Retrieved January 30, 2015.
  28. ^ "PRESS RELEASE: Jason Kander Announces He Will Run for United States Senate". The Missouri Times. February 19, 2015. Retrieved February 19, 2015.
  29. ^ Salter, Jim (July 23, 2016). "Blunt, Kander looking ahead to November in Senate race". Columbia Missouran. Retrieved October 31, 2021.
  30. ^ ""Chief Wana Dubie" announces bid for U.S. Senate from Missouri". July 16, 2015.
  31. ^ "Wana Dubie officially first US Senate candidate from Salem". Retrieved February 25, 2016.
  32. ^ Cillizza, Chris (September 19, 2013). "Missouri Gov. Jay Nixon steps forward, but toward what?". The Washington Post. Retrieved April 8, 2014.
  33. ^ Faughn, Scott (October 20, 2014). "2016 Outlook". The Missouri Times. Retrieved November 14, 2014.
  34. ^ Fox, Jeff (February 27, 2015). "Sanders says he won't run for state office". The Examiner. Retrieved March 1, 2015.
  35. ^ Bologna, Giacoma (October 2, 2013). "Show Me Nothing: Missouri Members Entrenched". Roll Call. Retrieved October 2, 2013.
  36. ^ "Missouri Treasurer Zweifel won't run for office". Kansas City Star. November 18, 2013. Retrieved November 19, 2013.
  37. ^ "MO-Sen: VP Joe Biden goes all in to help Jason Kander (D) to defeat Roy Blunt (R)". Daily Kos. August 16, 2016. Retrieved September 21, 2016.
  38. ^ a b c d e "Missouri Leaders endorse Jason's campaign for Senate". jasonkander.com. February 19, 2015. Archived from the original on September 23, 2016. Retrieved September 21, 2016.
  39. ^ "MO-Sen: Al Franken (D. MN) steps up to help Jason Kander (D) to defeat Roy Blunt (R)". Daily Kos. May 4, 2016. Retrieved September 21, 2016.
  40. ^ "MO & FL-Sen: Sen. Martin Heinrich (D. NM) wants to flip these two seats to end the obstruction". Daily Kos. March 23, 2016. Retrieved September 21, 2016.
  41. ^ "MO-Sen: Harry Reid (D. NV) helps Jason Kander (D) pull an upset victory". Daily Kos. August 1, 2016. Retrieved September 21, 2016.
  42. ^ "MO-Sen: Jon Tester (D. MT) wishes Jason Kander (D) happy birthday by helping him fuel his campaign". Daily Kos. March 4, 2016. Retrieved September 21, 2016.
  43. ^ "MO-Sen: Jason Kander (D) proudly touts having Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) on Team Kander". Daily Kos. June 29, 2016. Retrieved September 21, 2016.
  44. ^ Vazquez, Maegan (September 15, 2016). "Blindfolded Veteran Assembles AR-15 to Make a Point About Gun Control". Independent Journal Review. Archived from the original on June 14, 2018. Retrieved September 17, 2016.
  45. ^ "Daily Kos: Jason Kander - 2016 endorsement". Daily Kos. Archived from the original on September 22, 2016. Retrieved September 21, 2016.
  46. ^ Blatt, Hannah (May 17, 2016). "LCV Action Fund endorses Jason Kander for U.S. Senate". League of Conservation Voters. Archived from the original on June 10, 2016. Retrieved September 21, 2016.
  47. ^ "Planned Parenthood Action Fund endorses Missouri's Jason Kander in Senate Race". Planned Parenthood Action Fund. August 11, 2016. Retrieved September 21, 2016.
  48. ^ "Sierra Club endorses Jason Kander for U.S. Senate". Sierra Club. August 8, 2016. Retrieved September 21, 2016.
  49. ^ "Herschel L. Young – Biographical Profile and Positions on the Issues". Vote-MO. Archived from the original on July 15, 2016. Retrieved August 2, 2016.
  50. ^ "Herschel Young Candidate for the People". Facebook. Retrieved August 2, 2016.
  51. ^ "Johnathan McFarland- Candidate for United States Senator". Missouri Green Party. Archived from the original on September 12, 2016. Retrieved September 1, 2016.
  52. ^ "Kander Certifies Green Party for November Ballot". Missouri Secretary of State. Retrieved September 1, 2016.
  53. ^ Blatchford, Taylor (June 10, 2016). "First-time competitor brings passion for race walking, politics to Senior Games". Columbia Missourian. Retrieved June 12, 2016.
  54. ^ "A unique campaign". May 25, 2016. Retrieved August 31, 2016.
  55. ^ Dundon, Eric (July 7, 2016). "Missouri Senate campaign swims against popular political current, but can it have an impact?". Retrieved August 31, 2016.
  56. ^ "Lee: No kicking the can". Retrieved August 31, 2016.
  57. ^ Video
  58. ^ "2016 Senate Race Ratings for November 2, 2016". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 26, 2021.
  59. ^ "2016 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 19, 2016.
  60. ^ "2016 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved November 3, 2016.
  61. ^ "Daily Kos Election 2016 forecast: The final version". Daily Kos. Retrieved March 27, 2021.
  62. ^ "Battle for the Senate 2016". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved October 28, 2016.
  63. ^ SurveyMonkey
  64. ^ SurveyMonkey
  65. ^ Emerson College
  66. ^ SurveyMonkey
  67. ^ Clarity Campaign Labs
  68. ^ SurveyMonkey
  69. ^ Public Policy Polling
  70. ^ Missouri Times/Remington Research Group (R)
  71. ^ Jonathan Dine (L), Fred Ryman (C), and "Others" each with 1%
  72. ^ DFM Research Archived January 31, 2017, at the Wayback Machine
  73. ^ SurveyMonkey
  74. ^ Emerson College
  75. ^ Monmouth University
  76. ^ SurveyMonkey
  77. ^ Missouri Scout/BK Strategies (R)
  78. ^ "Others" with 3% and Fred Ryman (C) with 1%
  79. ^ St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon
  80. ^ Emerson College
  81. ^ Google Consumer Surveys
  82. ^ Monmouth University
  83. ^ a b Jonathan Dine (L) with 3%
  84. ^ Emerson College
  85. ^ Missouri Scout/Remington Research Group (R)
  86. ^ Public Policy Polling
  87. ^ Monmouth University
  88. ^ Remington Research Group (R)
  89. ^ Jonathan Dine (L) with 4% and Fred Ryman (C) with 2%
  90. ^ St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon
  91. ^ Public Policy Polling
  92. ^ Missouri Scout/Remington Research Group (R)
  93. ^ DFM Research
  94. ^ Missouri Scout/Remington Research Group (R) Archived March 4, 2016, at the Wayback Machine
  95. ^ Public Policy Polling
  96. ^ Remington Research Group (R)
  97. ^ "Official Results: 2016 General Election". Missouri Secretary of State. December 12, 2016. Archived from the original on June 15, 2019. Retrieved March 17, 2017.
  98. ^ "Dra 2020".
[edit]

Official campaign websites

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