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2024 Estlink 2 incident

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2024 Estlink 2 incident
Eagle S slowed significantly while passing Estlink 2.
Eagle S
Patrol vessel Turva
Date25 December 2024
LocationGulf of Finland, Baltic Sea
CauseUnder investigation; suspected sabotage

On 25 December 2024 at 12:26 EET, the Estlink 2 submarine power cable had an unplanned failure, reducing the Estonia–Finland cross-border capacity from 1,016 MW to 358 MW.[1] The Finnish transmission system operator Fingrid expects the failure to last until August 2025.[1] At the time of the outage, electricity was flowing from Finland to Estonia at a rate of 658 MW. Concerns about potential sabotage rose due to the recent outages in the Baltic Sea region, although subsea cables are also prone to technical malfunctions and accidents.[2]

On the evening of the same day authorities were informed of disruptions to four telecommunications cables with two cables belonging to the Finnish telecommunications company Elisa having been completely severed.[3][4]

Finnish authorities are investigating the incident and suspect that the oil tanker Eagle S, believed to be part of the Russian shadow fleet, had intentionally caused the cable rupture with its anchor.[5]

Incident

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On early morning 25 December 2024, the oil tanker Eagle S, officially under management of the company Peninsular Maritime India and with an Indian safety management certificate from September 2024, left the Russian port of Ust-Luga with a load of unleaded gasoline, which was, according to press research, destined for Aliağa, Turkey. (Other sources say Port Said, Egypt.)[4] The captain was a 39-year-old Georgian national, who had joined the crew in October.[6]

On 25 December at 10:26 GMT, Eagle S crossed the Estlink 2 submarine cable beneath the Gulf of Finland. At the same time, the Finnish electricity transmission grid operator Fingrid reported a power outage on the cable.[7]

At 1:50 p.m. local time the Eagle S made a U-turn back towards Russia, approximately a half-an-a-hour after having crossed over EST 2; she returned to her original course at approximately 2:20 p.m.[4]

Investigation

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Eagle S, registered in the Cook Islands and while not on the list of 79 ships sanctioned by the EU at the time[8] believed to be part of the Russian shadow fleet,[9] is under investigation for its potential involvement in the incident.[5][10] Finnish authorities suspect that the tanker's anchor may have caused the rupture of the cable.[5]

By early evening of 25 December, the Finnish Border Guard's offshore patrol vessel Turva was escorting Eagle S to the Porkkalanniemi peninsula.[10] The anchors were not in place on the vessel, and at 00:28 on the 26th, the Police Rapid Response Unit Karhu and the Special Intervention Unit of the Gulf of Finland Coast Guard District [fi] boarded the ship using two helicopters provided by the Finnish Defence Forces and the Finnish Border Guard. The authorities were armed and prepared for resistance, but there was none and the authorities quickly took control of the vessel.[11] The authorities asked Eagle S to raise the anchor, but only the anchor chain rose to the surface. The police took possession of the ship.[12]

The ship's crew, numbering just over 20 members, is made up of Georgian and Indian nationals.[13] The nationality of her officers has not been announced. According to Sami Paila [fi], Head of Investigation at the National Bureau of Investigation (NBI), some of the crew are suspects and some are witnesses, and no arrests have been made.[4] According to Sami Rakshit [fi] head of the Finnish Customs, the case is also being investigated for a serious regulatory offense of evasion of sanctions imposed on Russia following its invasion of Ukraine, as the vessel is carrying 35,000 tons of unleaded gasoline.[14][15] Furthermore, investigators found no valid insurance for the ship at the time of incident in the Indian Register of Shipping, with her last policy, with Ingosstrakh, having expired in August 2024.[16]

Flight bans were instated to the route from Porkkalanniemi to Porvoo. Svartbäck highlighted with blue and bans with red.[17]

On 27 December 2024, Eagle S and Turva were still near Porkkalanniemi.[18] The police confirmed that the tanker is suspected of having caused the failure and that the incident is being investigated as an act of gross vandalism, with a flight ban of three kilometers instated around the area to support the preliminary investigation.[19] Chief of Police of Finland Ilkka Koskimäki [fi] said that there had not been any contact with Russia and there were no plans to do so.[20]

On the morning of 28 December 2024, Turva left Eagle S and the Finnish tugboat Ukko arrived. According to the police, the ship will be moved to Svartbäck inner anchorage, near the Port of Kilpilahti in Porvoo. Flight bans have been instated to the route and Svartbäck. The tugboat is a few hundred meters away from the tanker, monitoring the situation.[21]

Impact

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Because electricity was flowing from Finland to Estonia at the time of the sabotage, and Estonia is a smaller country, electricity prices are expected to decrease slightly in Finland and rise significantly in Estonia.[22]

Reactions

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Raju (PVL 203)

Estonia

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Estonia's president Alar Karis said on X that "repeated damage to Baltic Sea infrastructure signals a systemic threat, not mere accidents."[23] Prime minister Kristen Michal said at a news conference that the shadow tankers "are helping Russia to earn funds that will aid Russian hybrid attacks,[24] and Defence Minister Hanno Pevkur announced on public radio that the patrol ship Raju had set sail on Tuesday (24 December) to protect Estlink 1.[25]

Finland

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Professor of criminal law Sakari Melander [fi] told Helsingin Sanomat, that "here it seems justified to consider the use of coercive measures. Arrest and imprisonment may be an option." Matti Tolvanen [fi], professor emeritus of criminal and procedural law, said that if the ship is allowed to leave, there is little chance of the matter being taken to court or even investigated.[26] A prosecutor has been assigned to handle the case.[27]

European Union and NATO

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Kaja Kallas, the foreign EU minister, stated that the incident was "the latest in a series of suspected attacks on critical infrastructure" and thanked Finnish authorities "for their swift action in boarding the suspected vessel".[28]

Mark Rutte, the secretary general of NATO, discussed the incident with Finnish president Alexander Stubb and stated that NATO intends to increase its military presence in the Baltic Sea as a result of the incident.[29]

Russia

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The Kremlin did not comment on the issue. "I can't say anything for sure, it's a very narrow-profile question, which is hardly the prerogative of the presidential administration," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said when asked by a Reuters journalist to comment on the actions of the Finnish authorities.[30]

New Zealand

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On 28 December 2024, New Zealand's Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade (MFAT) issued a statement that New Zealand was not responsible for the Cook Islands-registered Eagle S. The Cook Islands is an associated state of New Zealand; managing its own internal affairs while New Zealand manages its foreign affairs, disasters relief and defence. MFAT also stated that the New Zealand government had raised concerns with the Cook Islands government about its shipping registry being used to help Russia's shadow fleet circumvent international sanctions and aid its war on Ukraine.[31] Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, New Zealand had imposed sanctions on Russia.[32] In late November 2024, Australia and New Zealand had endorsed a joint Call to Action against Russian and North Korean shadow fleet activity.[33]

See also

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References

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