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2024 Mozambican general election

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2024 Mozambican general election
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Presidential election
 
Daniel Chapo 2016.jpg
Nominee Daniel Chapo Venâncio Mondlane Ossufo Momade
Party FRELIMO PODEMOS RENAMO
Popular vote 4,416,306 1,639,333 448,738
Percentage 65.17% 24.19% 6.62%
President before election

Filipe Nyusi
FRELIMO

Elected President

Daniel Chapo
FRELIMO

Parliamentary election
All 250 seats in the Assembly of the Republic
126 seats needed for a majority
Party Leader Seats +/–
FRELIMO Filipe Nyusi 171 −13
PODEMOS Albino Forquilha 43 New
RENAMO Ossufo Momade 28 −32
MDM Lutero Simango 8 +2
This lists parties that won seats. See the complete results below.
Politics of Mozambique
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General elections were held in Mozambique on 9 October 2024 to elect the president, the 250 members of the Assembly of the Republic and members of the ten provincial assemblies.[1][2][3]

The ruling FRELIMO party, which has increasingly become marked with growing concerns of authoritarianism and impunity amid the controversies surrounding the 2023 local elections and the 2019 general election,[4] was declared the winner of the election, with its leader, Daniel Chapo, proclaimed as president-elect. This was disputed by Venâncio Mondlane, with his party PODEMOS claiming Mondlane had received 53% of the vote using data from their poll observers. The result was also questioned by the Episcopal Conference of Mozambique and the European Union, while deadly protests broke out over the election results, with at least 250 deaths, mostly demonstrators being killed by police and army forces.[5][6]

Background

[edit]

FRELIMO, which has ruled the country since 1975 when they created a one-party Marxist–Leninist state, allowed multi-party elections as part of the peace process that ended the Mozambican Civil War in 1994; however, the opposition has decried these elections as rigged in FRELIMO's favor. After the 2023 local elections protests broke out due to alleged fraud on the part of FRELIMO with the police killing at least three protesters. Public perceptions of the election were muted, as many view a FRELIMO victory as a foregone conclusion.[7]

Electoral system

[edit]

The president is elected using the two-round system.[8] The 250 members of the Assembly of the Republic are elected by proportional representation in eleven multi-member constituencies based on the country's provinces and on a first-past-the-post basis from two single-member constituencies representing Mozambican citizens in Africa and Europe. Seats in the multi-member constituencies are allocated using the d'Hondt method, with an electoral threshold of 5%.[9] Official results are announced by the National Election Commission (CNE) after 15 days and must subsequently be validated by the Constitutional Council.[10]

Concerns have been raised over discrepancies in the total number of registered voters, which stands at more than 17 million.[11] The non-governmental organisation Centro de Integridade Pública, citing data published by the CNE, said that there are 878,868 more registered voters than there are voting age adults in some provinces, leading them to describe 5% of the electorate as "ghost voters". The International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance also notes the existence of "ghost voters" in seven of the country's ten provinces, with up to a third of the registered voting population in Gaza Province believed to be non-existent.[12]

Candidates

[edit]

Amélia Muendane, Luísa Diogo, Jaime Basílio Monteiro, José Pacheco, Celso Correia, and Samora Machel junior. On 5 May 2024, after a meeting of its Central Committee, FRELIMO named Daniel Chapo, a 47-year old law professor and former governor of Inhambane Province, as its candidate in the upcoming election to succeed outgoing president Filipe Nyusi.[13] Chapo is the first presidential candidate of FRELIMO who was born after Mozambique gained independence in 1975.[12]

On the same date, the Democratic Movement of Mozambique (MDM) selected its leader, Lutero Simango, to be its candidate for the October elections.[14]

Other candidates include Ossufo Momade, the leader of the RENAMO party since 2018 who had lost in the 2019 presidential election to Nyusi, and Venâncio Mondlane, a banker and forestry engineer[10] who ran as an independent after breaking away from RENAMO following an unsuccessful bid in the mayoral election in Maputo in 2023 that was marred by allegations of electoral fraud.[12] Mondlane was supported by the newly established Optimist Party for the Development of Mozambique (PODEMOS), as well as the Democratic Alliance, a coalition of opposition parties that were barred from contesting the election.[15][16] Mondlane was registered as the PODEMOS party's presidential candidate for this election.[17][18] Also, the president of the PODEMOS party, Albino Forquilha, said that he allows for the possibility of Mondlane becoming the party leader in the future.[19]

Campaign

[edit]

Campaigning was held from August to 6 October.[20] Both Chapo and Mondlane also made campaign stops in neighbouring South Africa, appealing to overseas voters there.[12] All three candidates named the resolution of the Insurgency in Cabo Delgado as their main priority.[20] Chapo was seen as the favorite to win the election.[7] Independent candidate Venâncio Mondlane was seen as the biggest challenge to Chapo.[21]

Conduct

[edit]

The Southern African Development Community sent 52 election observers to monitor the election.[20] Observers were also deployed by the African Union and the European Union.[21] However, more than 200 polling stations denied journalists and observers access to the vote counting process with the election watchdog group Sala da Paz stating: "There were significant cases of .... electoral irregularities that may raise questions about the credibility of the process."[22]

Polling opened at 07:00 and closed at 18:00.[23] Chapo's rivals alleged instances of fraud such as ballot boxes being unsealed before voting ended and some of their representatives being denied accreditation to monitor the vote.[21]

Results

[edit]

Opposition candidate Venâncio Mondlane preemptively declared himself victor.[24]

By 16 October preliminary reports showed Chapo in the lead.[25] On 24 October, the CNE announced that Chapo won the election with 71% of the vote, while turnout was at 43%. It also said that FRELIMO won in all provincial elections and won 195 of the 250 seats in parliament, with PODEMOS winning 31 seats and RENAMO winning 20.[26] PODEMOS disputed the results, publishing their own parallel count from their election monitors which showed Mondlane won with 53% of the vote and the party won 138 seats. PODEMOS provided over 660 pounds of tabulated ballots to support their election count.[27] On 23 December, the Constitutional Council published and validated the election results, which were different from the preliminary outcome announced by the CNE.[28]

President

[edit]
CandidatePartyVotes%
Daniel ChapoFRELIMO4,416,30665.17
Venâncio MondlanePODEMOS1,639,33324.19
Ossufo MomadeRENAMO448,7386.62
Lutero SimangoMDM272,7364.02
Total6,777,113100.00
Valid votes6,777,11393.63
Invalid votes205,6012.84
Blank votes255,3133.53
Total votes7,238,027100.00
Registered voters/turnout17,169,23942.16

Assembly

[edit]
PartySeats+/–
FRELIMO171-13
PODEMOS43New
RENAMO28–32
Democratic Movement of Mozambique8+2
Total2500

Provincial elections

[edit]
Province Seats
FRELIMO RENAMO MDM
Cabo Delgado Province
Gaza Province
Inhambane Province
Manica Province
Maputo Province
Nampula Province
Niassa Province
Sofala Province
Tete Province
Zambezia Province
Total
Source:

Aftermath

[edit]
Main article: 2024 Mozambican protests

While counting was underway on 11 October, Venâncio Mondlane threatened to launch a nationwide strike if FRELIMO declared victory.[29] That same day, observers from the European Union and the European Parliament demanded that central election authorities release all voting details from all voting places. Despite having the data, the central election authorities have refused to do so.[30] The EU observers later said that there had been "irregularities during counting and unjustified alteration of election results at polling station and district level".[31] Mondlane later set the strike to begin on 21 October. On 16 October, four people were arrested during a march led by Mondlane in Nampula.[32] Observers from the US-based International Republican Institute also noted instances of voter intimidation, vote-buying and inflated voter rolls in FRELIMO strongholds.[33]

On 14 October, Lutero Simango and the Democratic Movement of Mozambique announced that they would be rejecting any official vote count due to "many irregularities and manipulation" and would be officially challenging the election in court. One of the main issues the MDM have had with the election is one of their voters was arrested without charge in a polling place in Ribáuè. The MDM also announced that they were conducting a parallel vote count which they will release when the official vote is released for comparison.[34]

On 16 October the Attorney General of Mozambique summoned Venâncio Mondlane for violating the Mozambican Constitution, arguing that Mondlane and his supporters performed "electoral offences, irregularities, common crimes and the violation[s] of ethical-electoral norms." Mondlane had claimed victory which the Attorney General classified as "incite[ing] violence, [and] public disorder". Mondlane is also publishing results from his parallel vote count which the attorney general classified as "behavior that violates ethical and electoral principles and norms."[24]

On 17 October Angolan writer José Eduardo Agualusa criticized Venâncio Mondlane for "an attitude of little democratic maturity" and that Mondlane was trying to "subvert the constitution." Agualusa also called on the ruling government to hold Mondlane "accountable for those statements" and that his strong performance, even though he did not win, was “the great revolution” of the current age and as such he needs to be more responsible. Agualusa also said that "Renamo, in fact, is the big loser in this process."[35]

The Mozambican police reported that on election day there were 38 cases of electoral crimes resulting in the arrest of 37 individuals. It also reported 60 electoral offenses resulting in 39 arrests from the period of 24 August to 6 October.[36] On 18 October, Elvino Dias, a lawyer working for PODEMOS and one of Mondlane's advisors, was shot dead in his car along with the party's spokesperson, Paulo Guambe, by unidentified attackers in Maputo.[37] At the time of his death, Dias was preparing to submit a case to the constitutional court contesting the result. Mondlane accused the security forces of responsibility, while the EU, the African Union, the United States and Portugal condemned the killings.[31] On 21 October, police fired tear gas at Mondlane while he was giving out interviews at the site of Dias and Guambe's murders. Mondlane said that police tried to prevent him from going outside to participate in protests. Protests also broke out in Maputo, Beira, Nampula and Gaza Province that same day as part of the strike called on by Mondlane, resulting in the arrest of six people and injuries to 16 people including two journalists.[38][39][33]

On 23 October the European Union observers released a statement that the government performed "unjustified alteration" and that the results of the election had been doctored in FRELIMO's favor while the U.S State Department demanded an investigation and rejected political violence.[40] The Episcopal Conference of Mozambique urged election officials to not "certify a lie", with Archbishop Inácio Saure saying that certifying Chapo as victor was a "lie" and "fraud", while also saying, "Mozambique must not return to violence."[41]

On 24 October, Mozambique's US dollar bonds dropped due to a massive selloff while the opposition called for a "revolution."[42] Also on 24 October Chapo denounced the protests, stating that "[FRELIMO] are an organised party that prepares its victories."[43]

On 25 October riots broke out across the country after the government announced that Chapo won and closed the border crossing with South Africa at Ressano Garcia. Makeshift barriers blocked main roads in Maputo, with protesters claiming they have "nothing to lose" due to the poor economic state the country has been in since TotalEnergies SE delayed the construction of a $20 billion natural gas plant due to the insurgency in Cabo Delgado. Mondlane stated in a live-stream that the election results of 71% for Chapo were "totally absurd" and that "The revolution has arrived... The time has come."[44] During these riots Mozambican security forces killed at least 11 protesters and used live ammunition and tear gas to clear crowds which was met with heavy criticism from Human Rights Watch. Another 50 were injured and over 400 protesters were arrested in the two day period from 24 to 25 October.[45]

On 27 October PODEMOS formally filed an appeal with the Constitutional Council against the results.[46][47]

On 28 October Mondlane called for the formation of a rival "Government of National Unity" consisting of all opposition parties to form a united front against FRELIMO.[48] All opposition parties except RENAMO joined this coalition, including New Democracy and MDM.[49]

Incumbent President Filipe Nyusi urging residents to stay home amid protests.[50] On 29 October Mondlane called for a week-long strike, and for a 4-million strong march on Maputo on 7 November to overwhelm Mozambican authorities with the sheer size of a protest.[51] The 7 November protests also led to clashes with police. Mondlane also fled Mozambique and said that he was not in Africa.[52] Mondlane claimed that 1.5 million protesters participated in the rally in Maputo on 7 November.[53]

On 31 October RENAMO announced that they were preparing to release their parallel vote count, stating they had won the popular vote in two provinces.[54] Its leader Ossufo Momade, also accused FRELIMO of fraud and claimed to have won the election.[55] Amnesty International called on Mozambican authorities to stop using deadly force on protesters.[56] It also accused the government of blocking access to internet and media websites. On 5 November, defence minister Cristóvão Artur Chume called the protests an attempt to overthrow the government and deployed the army to restore order. The South African government closed the Lebombo border crossing with Mozambique following violent protests and barricades on the Mozambican side.[57][58] Fifteen officials from the Mozambican border post fled to South Africa seeking shelter from the violence.[59] By 6 November, Human Rights Watch counted at least 30 deaths since the start of the protests, while the Centre for Democracy and Human Rights put the death toll at 34. The government said that a police officer was also killed.[60] HRW later said that at least ten children were among the dead.[61]

Also on 6 November, the Constitutional Council gave the CNE 72 hours to explain discrepancies in the number of voters in the election, with there being ~170,000 "fake votes" for FRELIMO.[62] The Mozambican Bar Association released a statement that annulling the elections is "one of the equations that should be on the table" in the dialogue to stop the violence.[63]

On 7 November, at least three people were killed and 66 others were injured during the renewed protests in Maputo.[60] Several instances of looting were reported.[64]

On 8 November, Catholic bishops from South Africa, Botswana, and Eswatini wrote a letter calling for “authorities to address the causes of disgruntlement” and to "respect the will of the Mozambican people" and called on the Southern African Development Community to intervene.[65] Mondlane also stated that protests would continue until the election results were overturned.[66] The MDM called for the recount of all votes or a repeat of the elections in order to restore "electoral justice."[67]

On 12 November Mondlane called for a three-day nationwide protest "at the borders, at the ports and in the provincial capitals. All 11 provincial capitals" while also denouncing government claims that he was trying to stage a coup, saying "If we wanted to carry out a coup d’état, we would have done it."[68] On 15 November, the government imposed a ban on protests.[69] It also filed a lawsuit against Mondlane for damages incurred during the protests valued at over 30 million meticais.[70]

Regional watchdog and observer group Election Resource Centre Africa criticised the conduct of the government amid the protests, reminding it of its commitments to the SADC Principles and Guidelines Governing Democratic Elections, which places a commitment on the Mozambican government to take all necessary measures and precautions to prevent political violence.[71]

The SADC called an extraordinary summit on Mozambique on 20 November in Harare, Zimbabwe.[72]

By 22 November six police officers had been killed, and another 69 injured, while the death toll from protesters continued to climb, with some of the protesters shot dead by police being as young as 16.[43]

On 23 November, Mondlane relented and issued his conditions for talks with the government which includes dropping any legal cases against him, the release of all those who were arrested for participating in the protests, and a 20 point plant for the "re-establishment of the electoral truth" which would create a mechanism for criminal and civil liability for those involved in falsifying the electoral process.[73]

On 24 November the governments of the United States, Britain, Canada, Norway, and Switzerland on Wednesday jointly condemned the escalating violence against civilians in Mozambique and demanded an investigation into the deaths of 67 civilians.[74] Human Rights Watch reported that at least 10 of the dead were children, and that the deteriorating security condition was preventing thousands of students from going to school.[75] Mozambique's bishops designated the 24 November as a National Day of Prayer for peace and reconciliation.[72]

Mondlane's conditions for ending the protests were never met, and as such he boycotted a meeting with Chapo on 27 November and instead livestreamed his supporters.[76]

On 28 November a video of a Mozambique Defence Armed Forces armored vehicle running over a protester went viral as the military has continued to use deadly force to clear barricades from provincial capitals with at two protesters being shot dead in Nampula the day before.[77]

On 2 December, Mondlane called for the protests to continue for another "two to three months" so that "the country will become unfeasible [to govern]" with the death toll now reaching 67 and gave an interview to the BBC in which he claimed to have spent some time during the earlier stages of the protests in hiding in South Africa due to credible threats to his life. Mondlane also stated that if FRELIMO does not cave to protesters that he will stand again in the 2029 Mozambican general election.[78]

On 23 December, the Constitutional Court confirmed FRELIMO's victory in the election.[79] Protests against the announcement left at least 125 people dead.[80] Mondlane refused to recognise the decision and said that he would hold his inauguration as president on 15 January 2025.[81]

Reactions

[edit]
  •  China: Foreign ministry spokesmen Lin Jian congratulated "the Frelimo party and Chapo on their election victory" on 26 October and called for a continuation of strong Chinese-Mozambican ties.[82]
  •  South Africa: President Cyril Ramaphosa announced on 27 October that he welcomes the election results and congratulated "President-Elect Daniel Chapo and his party, FRELIMO" while also calling for calm and denouncing violence.[83] After violence broke out related to the election, foreign minister Ronald Lamola expressed concern and called for calm.[59]

References

[edit]
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