Talk:Cat predation on wildlife

Islands and Mainlands

I think we have consensus that whatever effect cats have on populations living on large continents, the effect they have on ecologically naive island species is much greater. Given that, we need to figure out which areas are which and how to describe them. In most cases this can be described as "islands" versus "mainlands". However, while most continents and large islands have ecosystems typical of mainlands, Australia and New Zealand are ecologically naive despite their large sizes because they have not had many species exchanges with the other continents since the breakup of Gondwana. This study Doherty et al 2016 is on invasive mammalian predators in general, though does include cats, and says that "If Australia is reclassified as an island, insular endemic mammals experience more severe predator impacts than continental species."

So my questions for the rest of you:

1. Do we agree that the division we should discuss in the article is "small islands + Australia and New Zealand" versus everywhere else?

2. What's a good way to word the division that you support, regardless of whether it's that one or a different one?

Iamnotabunny (talk) 18:11, 14 June 2024 (UTC)

Geogene, thank you for linking Loss & Marra 2017. I was unable to find the full text of that when I came across it before. It appears to me that Loss & Marra's choice to classify Australia and New Zealand as mainlands was driven by their desire to prove that cat predation has population-level effects on mainlands. The strongest evidence they cite for that involves the silvereye in New Zealand and the long-haired rat in Australia ("the most compelling evidence to date"). This supports what I said above. Iamnotabunny (talk) 00:06, 15 June 2024 (UTC)

The source says what it says--that Australia and New Zealand count as mainlands. Why do you want to go against that? Geogene (talk) 00:17, 15 June 2024 (UTC)

If you read closely, you will notice that's not what I said. Iamnotabunny (talk) 00:21, 15 June 2024 (UTC)

Perhaps we can take some language from Doherty et al 2016: "Species most at risk from [invasive] predators have high evolutionary distinctiveness and inhabit insular environments." Iamnotabunny (talk) 00:52, 15 June 2024 (UTC)

If the intention of that would be to use a primary source from 2016 to water down the impact of cats on mainland fauna from more recent secondary sources, then no. Geogene (talk) 01:02, 17 June 2024 (UTC)

Cat Impact on Wildlife Populations

The three above threads all touch on this topic, but either lack clarity or address a different issue. All seem to agree that the mainstream view is that cats negatively impact wildlife populations. There has been debate on whether the viewpoint of "it is uncertain to what degree cats negatively impact wildlife populations" is WP:FRINGE or simply a WP:DUE minority view.

I propose the following criteria as sufficient for one or two sourced sentences stating this opposing view. The view is suitable for inclusion if the following can be found:

• An arbitrary number (say, 3) sources
• That are literature reviews
• That are published in reputable journals
• That are published in the last 20 years
• That identify, as a conclusion, that debate or dissent exists regarding the impact of cats on wildlife populations

I believe if three such high quality sources could be identified, it would demonstrate that there's enough scientific dissent that the viewpoint is not fringe. If many such sources are found, we can reevaluate the level of weight that is due. I hope this proposal will be seen favorably by all. Those who view the "uncertain impact" viewpoint as fringe may rest that such literature reviews could not be found for a fringe theory. Those who believe the "uncertain impact" viewpoint is simply a minority one can likewise be reassured that all they have to do is obtain the evidence they believe exists.

If any of the details above are unacceptable, alternative parameters are welcome. I hope this can bring us out of this uncomfortable quagmire. EducatedRedneck (talk) 23:54, 17 June 2024 (UTC)

Well, three literature reviews is admittedly arbitrary. But otherwise the problem of the scientific consensus over the last 20 years is soundly posed and can be answered in a much more direct way.

As already quoted above, Loss and Marra 2017 acknowledge explicitly that at their time of writing - 7 years ago, i.e. two thirds of the way into the period under discussion - debate and uncertainty prevailed regarding population-level impacts of cat predation on wildlife: The cat management debate often revolves around the degree to which cats cause wildlife mortality and whether that mortality reduces wildlife population sizes. Overwhelming evidence for such impacts on islands has led to many successful cat eradications, with subsequent recovery of persisting species (Nogales et al. 2004). On mainlands (continents and large islands, such as those constituting New Zealand and the UK), cat impacts on vertebrate populations remain the subject of heated debate (p. 503). I see no reason not to take their word for it.

In that paper, Loss and Marra proposed a paradigm shift, which consisted of shifting the criteria of the debate (We ... argue that policy discussions should shift from requiring proof of impact to a precautionary approach, p. 503; We argue that discussion about cat population management should shift toward a weight of evidence approach used hand-in-hand with the precautionary principle, p. 507).

Whether their efforts in this respect were successful is a matter for further investigation (the paper has 171 citations, hardly a record-breaker in the field), but whatever one claims about the period after 2017, the authors of the proposed paradigm shift provide incontrovertible dated evidence that at least until 2017, in the language of Geogene and SMcCandlish, "fringe" views were the mainstream - there we have it from the horse's mouth.

Notably, the paradigm shift proposed by Loss and Marra seems not to be a scientific one. It is applied at once to policy discussions and the "cat management debate" (cf. We perceive [the argument that evidence of impact is lacking] as a major factor limiting public and political will toward initiating steps to reduce cat populations and revisiting policies like TNR, p. 503; The management debate would be greatly reshaped by considering the weight of evidence that cats do affect mainland vertebrate populations and assuming that these impacts are likely unless evidence is provided that conclusively suggests otherwise, p. 507), so, back to my point from Russell and Blackburn 2016 about not conflating science with policy, it is not clear whether there had been any major disagreements about results of scientific study and whether any shift in scientific findings had occurred.

My suggestion to resolve the present dispute would be to report the proposed paradigm shift accurately in the article for what it consisted of, then assess its reception. VampaVampa (talk) 15:01, 18 June 2024 (UTC)

We are not discussing policy. We are discussing what would satisfy the proposition that a viewpoint other than "cats negatively impact wildlife populations" is not WP:FRINGE. You said above that we must not conflate policy with science. Let us ensure we take your advice here as well. The discussion to date has been on science, not policy. If you would like to propose changing the article to reflect a shift in policy, that should be under a different section, as it is an entirely different proposition with different requirements.

This is a good example of why I've proposed the above criteria. We must be clear on what we propose, and what requirements we impose for inclusion. It is not our place to pick only certain passages from some sources and infer the state of the literature. This would be WP:SYNTH. The Loss and Marra source, in its abstract, states, In addition to predation, cats... suppress vertebrate population sizes below their respective carrying capacities, and alter demographic processes such as source–sink dynamics. I do not believe this qualifies as a source that goes against the mainstream view. EducatedRedneck (talk) 15:39, 18 June 2024 (UTC)

We are still on a talk page, making arguments to reach an understanding, so SYNTH does not apply, but I understand you have simply not been persuaded.

There would be nothing of synthesis, however, in adducing the above passage from Loss and Marra 2017 in the article as evidence for the existence of debate concerning the impact of cat predation on wildlife populations on mainlands in 2017. That's what the passage says. The only thing that is not immediately clear from it is - as you seem to be saying - whether that reported debate concerned policy or science. It can be confusing, because Loss and Marra mostly refer throughout the article to a "cat management debate". But in this passage it is patently not the case.

I am very glad to have your backing for separating science from policy. The difficulty in distinguishing the scientific claims in that article lies in the fact that they are intermingled with claims about policy, often within the same sentence. To come back to the first sentence above: The cat management debate often revolves around the degree to which cats cause wildlife mortality and whether that mortality reduces wildlife population sizes. The initial clause relates to policy, but both subordinate clauses relate to science. The next sentences continue to discuss science by referring to "such impacts" and the evidence for them - that can only refer to science, not policy. Loss and Marra say it is the impacts on mainlands that are debated, not what to do about them. So the debate that is mentioned is scientific.

The sentence you quoted from the abstract does not contradict the claim about the scientific debate being mainstream as of 2017. It is preceded by this sentence: More than a dozen observational studies, as well as experimental research, provide unequivocal evidence that cats are capable of affecting multiple population-level processes among mainland vertebrates. This clarifies the basis on which the next claim is made (cats ... suppress...) and that it actually refers to a potential ("are capable of") demonstrated in certain circumstances and not to a claim that the phenomena always apply. Loss and Marra are therefore being much more moderate in their scientific claims than your quotation out of context suggests. They never claim to have closed the scientific debate by scientific means, but only by proposing to lower the standard of evidence required to resolve the policy debate (no longer "requiring proof of impact" because of difficulties inherent in measuring those impacts, which they explain in Panel 1). That is my reading of the article but I am happy to be persuaded otherwise. VampaVampa (talk) 17:26, 18 June 2024 (UTC)

I am quite aware that SYNTH does not apply to talk pages. However, if you'll consult the original post, this section is about the criterion for a change of the article, a change which must be sourced and to which SYNTH applies. I see no point in debating sources we won't even use for the article. I'm flummoxed about what you're trying to do here. If you're not trying to find a source we can use to effect a change in the article, what are you trying to do? You don't seem like the type to talk just for talking's sake, so I'd seriously doubt that you're running afoul of WP:NOTAFORUM, but your motives remain a mystery to me.

In any case, this section is specifically about if and how to change the article. That means that article-level sourcing is required. If you want to talk about something else, I suggest you start a new section and clearly explain what it is you're trying to discuss, because despite exchanging thousands of bytes with you, I evidently am still unclear on what your objective is. EducatedRedneck (talk) 19:05, 18 June 2024 (UTC)

This: There has been debate on whether the viewpoint of "it is uncertain to what degree cats negatively impact wildlife populations" is WP:FRINGE or simply a WP:DUE minority view is a talk page matter, extrinsic to article content and introduced by the partisan claims of Geogene and SMcCandlish above. If this can be considered out of the way, I too would happily move on to discussing the article. VampaVampa (talk) 19:30, 18 June 2024 (UTC)

That is a single sentence for context. The operative part is I propose the following criteria as sufficient for one or two sourced sentences stating this opposing view. I trust that the purpose of this section has been clarified for you, and you will therefore stay on topic if you participate in this section. EducatedRedneck (talk) 19:53, 18 June 2024 (UTC)

OK, thank you for the clarification. I should clarify in turn that I am engaging with this exercise to establish the due proportions of views on the impact of cat predation on the status of populations (although I believe it would be far more productive to discuss individual claims, not broad views, because this dualism is where the battleground mentality you complained about comes from). I will not discuss the allegation (by GG and SMC) that any claims in my edit or related to the dispute are "fringe", because that is a personal attack in the same way that my charge of "vandalism" was at ANI. It should be enough to have a look at Category:Fringe theories or at the criteria on WP:FRINGE to see why that is. If I espoused "fringe" views, we would not be talking. I cannot help the fact that some published authors have used this as a rhetorical device to silence their critics, and it is certainly not sufficient that a view is not represented in what may be the single relevant literature review for it to become pseudoscience.

As far as I can tell, the feasibility of the exercise of finding 3 literature reviews depends on the proposed definition of a literature review, because there appear to be almost no free-standing review articles that cover impacts on population status and differentiate them clearly from other impacts. Two questions here, please:

• WP:RS/AC says that a review article that is used to clarify academic consensus is expected to directly state that all or most scientists or scholars hold that view. Otherwise, individual opinions should be identified as those of particular, named sources ... Stated simply, any statement in Wikipedia that academic consensus exists on a topic must be sourced rather than being based on the opinion or assessment of editors. In other words, a literature review for these purposes needs to report and attribute arguments (views) to authors, as opposed to citing publications to support its own interpretations of evidence. (It should probably also not ignore opposition arguments at the risk of being biased.) Would that be part of your understanding?
• Due to the paucity of global-scope review articles on the subject, can literature reviews that are subsections of an article and fulfil the condition above be used?

The proposal to potentially include "one or two sourced sentences" is not disagreeable in principle, but feels a bit rigid. I would say the relevance of any sentence expressing an opposing view will depend on what claims are made in the article, but that is a matter to discuss later. VampaVampa (talk) 00:02, 19 June 2024 (UTC)

To your first bullet: I think you're misunderstanding what it's saying. The policy is saying that the academic consensus may be phrased as a statement of fact, in wikivoice, and that identifying minority viewpoints must be done by identifying those who hold them, not as statements of fact or with weasel words such as "some scholars". It does not prescribe how review articles are conducted.

To the second bullet point, to make sure I understand, you're asking if the literature review sections of a research article can substitute for a review article. My knee-jerk reaction is "no". An author can, through unconscious bias or deliberate action, cherry pick sources to support their view. This is not sufficient to demonstrate significant dissent from the mainstream view.

I am hearing that 3 review articles may be too high a burden. Iamnotabunny above posted at least one review article which came to a conclusion on cat impact on wildlife populations, so at least one review article exists. I propose that we change the metric to "10% of review articles that voice a conclusion on cat impact on wildlife populations". So now you're only looking for one review article. I hope Geogene would agree that if 10% of review articles identify a particular viewpoint, it is minority but not fringe.

As for the sentence(s) to include, I agree that we can workshop what to put in once we've demonstrated the view is a matter of WP:DUE weight. EducatedRedneck (talk) 12:20, 19 June 2024 (UTC)

By the review Iamnotabunny posted above, do you mean Doherty et al. 2016? It is labelled as a "research article" and collates data, and while useful (Fig. 4 shows that very few species are threatened by all introduced predators in Europe, Africa and North America, and few in South America and Asia) it does not engage with the views of any authors. That is not a literature review, but a meta-analysis. Similarly, Loss et al. 2022 quantify study findings according to their own criteria rather than engaging with the claims in the literature (re: population impact, what negative effects on at least one response variable actually mean remains unknown because the response variables are not listed).

Please could you be clear what you propose to understand by review articles and indicate a good example, so that I know what you are asking me to look for.

A statement that all or most scientists or scholars hold a certain view requires reliable sourcing that directly says that all or most scientists or scholars hold that view does not prescribe how review articles are conducted but it does say what claims the reliable sourcing must contain for Wikipedia to establish academic consensus. I am unable to read this otherwise.

While review articles should be less likely to cherry pick, conducting a literature review in a biased way would also seriously affect the validity of the research article. I linked above to a Wikipedia article that warns against the potential bias in review articles. But if enough review articles can be found under clear criteria, it should be fine.

The bogeyman of fringe theory appears to persist. Per WP:DUE (based off of Wikipedia founder's own proposal), If a viewpoint is held by a significant minority, then it should be easy to name prominent adherents, so I am not sure why we need to reinvent Wikipedia guidelines here. Off the top of my head, there are at least three prominent adherents of the view that cats do not constitute a primary threat to global wildlife survival who are recognised for their work in biological science: Philip Baker of the University of Reading (co-author e.g. of this 2005 paper with 330 citations), Roger Tabor, Fellow of the Royal Society of Biology, and Dennis Turner of the University of Zurich (co-editor of Domestic Cat, 529 citations to the 2nd edition of 2000). I am linking to their recent expressions of views on the matter (2022 for Baker and Turner, 2013 for Tabor). This is per prominence, while the other outspoken critic of Loss, Marra et al. is Francisco Badenes Perez, with impeccable academic credentials and academic tenure at Spanish National Research Council held for 15 years. VampaVampa (talk) 20:23, 19 June 2024 (UTC)

Perhaps I was mistaken about who posted it, but it was the Loss et al. article. I specified review articles for precisely the reason you stated; they are less likely to be biased. They also, per WP:RS/AC represent a broader sampling of scholarship.

Your rejection of my proposed criteria is noted. I am disinclined to debate what constitutes fringe with no intent to make a change to the article. I am unmoved by WP:AAJ. I am wearied by repeated WP:WALLOFTEXT. I would not expect a response from me to a post of yours greater than 2 kb in size. EducatedRedneck (talk) 21:35, 19 June 2024 (UTC)

Oops, I was going to take a short break and think about this very carefully before replying, but I see things somewhat exploded while I was gone. So I'll drop in a couple notes on where my thoughts have been going:

• The word "fringe" brings to mind ideas such as flat Earth which have been through hundreds of years of debate and soundly rejected, or vaccine-autism link, which lacks a coherent causal explanation and also lacks supporting empirical data. In contrast, the idea that a predator can in some circumstances kill prey without posing a significant risk of the prey population going extinct seems ... obvious? In any case, this is clearly very different from the most central concept of a "fringe theory".
• The question that affects how the article should be written is "Is this a significant viewpoint published by reliable sources such that it should be included in proportion, or a view only held by a tiny minority that is safe to leave out?" For example, the view of animal personhood is significant enough to warrant a brief mention in the Animal rights article, while modern day belief in flat Earth does not warrant a mention on Earth.
• The suggestion to read literature reviews was a good idea, and one I am still working on. So far my impression is that conservation biologists, particularly Peter Marra and to a lesser extent Scott Loss, express much stronger claims based on much less data than other fields of science I am more used to, such as animal genetics.
• Wikipedia policy is carefully designed to make it easy for articles to say true things and hard for articles to say false things, without requiring that editors come to an agreement on which is which. Of course, such an agreement is helpful if it can be reached.

I'm going to try to stay out of this discussion until I finish reading more of the literature. In the meantime, please don't get mad at each other - everyone here has good intentions, and everyone here wants the article to be the best it can be. Iamnotabunny (talk) 17:40, 20 June 2024 (UTC)

Peer review

Hi there! just wanted to give ya a heads-up that I did a review! It's looking good, keep it up. ItchySquirl (talk) 03:21, 30 October 2024 (UTC)