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Israeli retaliation leak

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On 18 October 2024, two leaked classified foreign intelligence documents from the United States' National Security Agency and the United States Geospatial Intelligence Agency were posted in Telegram channels. The leaked documents were related to the Israeli plans to retaliate against Iran for its strikes against Israel in October 2024. They revealed detailed plans documented by the United States regarding Israeli military measures including Air Force exercises, military drone operations, and the relocation of advanced munitions, as well as satellite imaging conducted by United States intelligence on the Israeli Air Force. One of the documents suggested something that Israel and the United States always declined to confirm publicly: Israel's possession of nuclear weapons. The leaks also revealed the significant contribution of the United States' spying on Iran towards providing intelligence for Israel's planned military operations.

Guam Department of Corrections mugshot of suspected leaker Asif Rahman

Asif William Rahman (born 18 September 1990),[1] a CIA employee with top-secret security clearance, was indicted on 7 November for willfully retaining and transmitting national defense information.[2] Rahman graduated from Yale University in 2013, appearing on multiple issues of the Yale Daily News.[3] He listed his hometown as Cincinnati, Ohio.[4]

Leak

On 18 October 2024, the classified documents were posted to a Telegram channel called "Middle East Spectator". The documents were dated to 15 and 16 October 2024. The user who posted the documents claimed that they were leaked by a member of the United States Intelligence Community, later claiming that they were a member of the United States Department of Defense. Three United States security officials reported the leak to The Associated Press, and a fourth official evaluated the documents as most likely being authentic.[5]

Contents

The two leaked confidential documents detailed measures taken by Israel to prepare for a retaliatory strike against Iran for its strikes on Israeli military bases in October 2024. Measures included the rearranging and relocation of advanced munitions and military assets needed to conduct the strikes, detailed plans for Israeli drone routes and strikes against Iranian targets, as well as a large exercise conducted by the Israeli Air Force potentially using fighter jets with intelligence planes, as well as air-to-surface missiles.[6][7] One of the documents suggested the presence of nuclear weapons in Israel's arsenal.[8] Both documents were labelled as "Top Secret" and "NOFORN" (not releasable to foreign nationals), although certain information within the documents was shared between security officials in the U.S., Canada, Great Britain, Australia, and New Zealand as part of the Five Eyes (FVEY) intelligence alliance.[5][8][9]

One of the documents was an alleged Department of Defense National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA) Visual Intelligence report that had been distributed in the week prior to the leak consisting entirely of satellite image analysis.[7] A leaked document was noted to be similar in style to other U.S. National Geospatial Intelligence Agency documents that had been leaked by Air National Guardsman Jack Teixeira regarding the Russo-Ukrainian war in March 2024.[5]

According to the leak, the US noted that the Israeli Air Force was handling ALBMs including 16 Golden Horizons and at least 40 ROCKS located at the Hatzerim Airbase since October 8.

Analysis

Axios reporter Barak Ravid stated that a possible motive for the leak was to disrupt or delay Israel's retaliation against Iran, and that the documents themselves indicated that United States intelligence was very closely involved with aiding Israel in its detailed preparations to attack Iran. The documents also indicated the use of United States satellites to spy on and gather information on Israeli Air Force operations, contributing to the seriousness of the security breach.[7]

CNN reporters Natasha Bertrand and Alex Marquardt noted that the data breaches would likely bring anger from Israel against the United States at a period where mutual diplomatic relations have been complicated during the Israel-Hamas war and associated conflicts with Iranian proxies. Retired CIA officer and former Middle East security official Mick Mulroy stated that confirmation of the documents' authenticity could challenge future ties and cooperation between Israel and the United States due to a fundamental breach in trust.[8]

Responses

The Pentagon and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence both noted the leak of the classified documents, but did not elaborate further.[5] The Federal Bureau of Investigation refused to comment on the leak. An anonymous United States official called the leak "deeply concerning".[8]

The Israel Defense Forces did not comment on the leak of the classified documents.[5] A senior Israel official reported that the Israel Defense Forces were aware of the leak, and that they were taking the breach "very seriously".[7]

Investigation

United States security officials quickly began an investigation into the nature of the leak, including how the documents had been obtained and shared as well as the identity and background of the people involved with the leak. The investigation also worked to determine if the leaker was a part of the U.S. government, if the leak was obtained by a hack or data breach, and if any other confidential information had been obtained and placed at risk for being shared to public or hostile parties.[5]

See also

References

  1. ^ Tomas, Jojo Santo; Licanto, Nestor (2024-11-14). "Guam judge OKs transfer to Virginia of US government worker accused of leaking classified documents on Israel's plan to strike Iran". guampdn.com. Retrieved 2024-11-16.
  2. ^ Perez, Evan; Rabinowitz, Hannah (13 November 2024). "FBI arrests alleged leaker of US intelligence documents related to Israel's attack plans against Iran". CNN Politics.
  3. ^ "CIA employee, Cincinnati native accused of leaking classified info on Israeli attack plans". WCPO 9 Cincinnati. 2024-11-15. Retrieved 2024-11-17.
  4. ^ WKRC (2024-11-15). "CIA employee with ties to Tri-State accused of leaking classified Israeli attack plans". WKRC. Retrieved 2024-11-17.
  5. ^ a b c d e f "The US is investigating an unauthorized release of classified documents on Israel's attack plans". AP News. 2024-10-20. Retrieved 2024-10-20.
  6. ^ "US investigating leak of classified documents on Israel's attack plans: Reports". POLITICO. 20 October 2024. Retrieved 20 October 2024.
  7. ^ a b c d Ravid, Barak (19 October 2024). "Pro-Iranian account leaks alleged U.S. intel on Israel's attack plans". Axios. Retrieved 19 October 2024.
  8. ^ a b c d Marquardt, Alex; Bertrand, Natasha (2024-10-19). "Leaked documents show US intelligence on Israel's plans to attack Iran, sources say". CNN Politics. CNN. Retrieved 2024-10-20.
  9. ^ Bryen, Stephen (20 October 2024). "US intel leak shakes Israel's plan to hit Iran, and more". Asia Times. Retrieved 21 October 2024.
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